Three key themes for uranium markets in 2023: 1) increased emphasis on energy security worldwide; 2) higher conversion/enrichment prices may boost spot uranium prices; and 3) the global energy transition supports the case for nuclear power. Uranium's performance was notably strong in 2022, despite the overall bear market. Although uranium mining equities fared less well, we believe that the positive fundamentals for uranium and nuclear energy are likely to provide support in 2023.
This year’s top 10 list offers Sprott’s thoughts on what will likely drive markets in the coming year and decade, from a macro perspective and the vantage of our asset classes: Precious Metals and Energy Transition Materials. We believe the global clean energy transition will grow more urgent as energy markets continue re-ordering and energy security becomes synonymous with national security. The signposts point to a commodity-intensive, inflationary and capital-intensive decade where energy transition materials and precious metals will become far more valued than in the prior market regime.
A global clean energy transition is underway. Significant investment in energy infrastructure will be required over the coming decades as we evolve how we generate, transmit and store energy. Critical minerals will be essential. We believe investing in the mining companies that produce critical minerals may offer attractive investment opportunities, as discussed in this video with Ed Coyne, Senior Managing Director at Sprott, and Steven Schoffstall, Director ETF Product Management.
Gold was an effective hedge in 2022, returning -0.28% for the bear market year. The yellow metal outperformed the S&P 500 Index, which declined 18.11%. Gold mining equities also outpaced the S&P 500. Looking ahead, we believe investors willing to seize the opportunity presented by inexpensive, unloved gold mining equities, will have the potential to reap substantial benefits from breaking the ranks of groupthink.
In tackling environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns, the "S" stakes are high for mining companies. Standards for corporate behavior have become more stringent over time and local communities where mines exist expect significant benefits from mining operators. Gold miners must earn their “social license” to operate, maintaining positive partnerships with host-country governments and with local communities.
The uranium markets did not perform as well as other sectors in November, despite having posted relatively strong performance throughout 2022. While the price of U3O8 uranium has lagged since May 2022, conversion and enriched uranium prices have significantly appreciated. We believe that current demand, coupled with a shift away from Russian suppliers, is likely to support a higher U3O8 uranium spot price.
Gold and gold mining equities posted strong results in November, up 8.26% and 16.79%, respectively. Silver gained 15.81%. Risk assets were catalyzed higher by the Fed's signal that it would slow the pace of rate hikes, a better-than-expected October inflation report and speculation that China may phase out its zero-COVID policy.
2022 has been a difficult year for many asset classes. Markets were historically volatile, with higher-than-expected inflation, quickly rising interest rates, the Russia-Ukraine war and the threat of a global economic recession. While metals and mining investments shared in 2022’s volatility, we look ahead to brighter opportunities in 2023.
The U3O8 uranium spot price climbed 8.32% in October, rising from $48.25 to $52.27 per pound. YTD as of October 31, 2022, the uranium spot price Has climbed by 24.12%. We believe the uranium bull market remains intact despite the negative macroeconomic environment. Our outlook is supported by the unprecedented number of announcements for nuclear power plant restarts, life extensions and new builds that are all creating demand for uranium.
The tough year continued in October for many asset classes, including gold and other precious metals. Gold demand, however, was strong in Q3 2022 as long-term investors took advantage of lower prices to build positions. With financial system stress cracks showing up, central banks are now trying to balance aggressively fighting the highest inflation levels in 40 years while maintaining financial stability in over-leveraged governments and markets.
September was tough on uranium (both physical and stocks), which was negatively impacted by the month's drawdowns. We believe the uranium bull market remains intact, especially given that many countries are facing energy shortages and rocketing costs. Nuclear energy provides a solution as a reliable, affordable base-load energy source.
The parabolic rise in the dollar contains the seeds of its own demise. The kiss of death, as for all overcrowded trades, is that it has become front page news. Dollar strength is a mirage, the reverse image of the flaw inherent in all paper currencies. The fatal flaw is that they are the ever increasing issuance of fiscal decay. The façade of dollar strength foretells a comeuppance for all currencies in the form of a steep devaluation in terms of gold.
Gold held above $1,700 since Q2 2020, but in mid-September, a significant risk-off wave occurred, breaking nearly every risk asset lower. The primary causes are higher than expected inflation data forcing yields (especially real yields) and the USD higher, two important gold drivers.
Uranium, both physical uranium and mining equities, had standout performance in August, in contrast to the weak results posted by the broader markets. We believe uranium's gains reflect the growing acceptance of nuclear power among global governments as they seek alternatives to meet ambitious energy transition and security goals.
It’s been a summer of doldrums for many asset classes. In our universe, however, uranium and other energy transition metals were a welcome exception to the market carnage — the spot uranium oxide composite was up 8.73% in August and 25.45% YTD. Precious metals, by contrast, lost ground as a liquidity crunch took hold in response to market declines and volatility. Gold lost 3.11% and silver fell 11.62% in August, while gold mining equities magnified gold bullion's loss by declining 10.00%.
The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (“SPUT”, TSX: U.U ($US); U.UN ($CA)) was launched just over a year ago in July 2021. While we were optimistic about the prospects for uranium, we could not foresee the tectonic shifts in the uranium sector that followed the launch and SPUT’s significant impact.
When SPUT began trading in late July 2021, there were many questions about how it would affect the uranium market. With 12 months of trading now behind us, we can confidently state that SPUT has dramatically altered the spot uranium market with far-reaching effects on much of the industry.
Maria Smirnova, Senior Portfolio Manager & Chief Investment Officer, Sprott Asset Management, is interviewed by Taylor Combaluzier, Red Cloud Financial Services, in Fireside Chat: The Silver Perspective. Maria joins Tavi Costa, Partner & Portfolio Manager, Crescat Capital LL. and Peter Krauth, Author of "The Great Silver Bull" and Editor of the Silver Stock Investor Newsletter.
July was another difficult month for most asset categories and was characterized by selling capitulation into exhaustion. Much more aggressive Fed rate hike expectations relative to other global central banks were a significant cause of U.S. dollar (USD) strength and rising real yields, which adversely affected gold. Although gold bullion lost ground, it remains relatively better off than many other assets for the year at -3.46% YTD through July 31, 2022.
If the Fed is to abandon the practice of inflating financial assets, which would represent a secular shift in direction, substantial deflation lies ahead from which the purchasing power of gold will surely rise in real terms. If there is a return to business as usual, i.e., papering over policy mistakes, we believe that the gold price has the potential to rise to all-time highs in nominal terms.
Gold continued to perform as a safe haven store of value in what has been one of the most challenging six-month periods for markets in decades. Gold has managed to stay above the $1,800 support level despite the broader market carnage. By contrast, equities (as measured by the S&P 500 Index) recorded their worst first-half start to a year since 1970 and bonds (U.S. Treasury Index) registered their worst first six months since 1973 (based on available data).
Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors interviews Sprott's John Hathaway on the gold bullion and gold equities markets. Oakley and Hathaway discuss why investors should consider adding gold to their investment portfolios and explore how gold affects portfolio diversification.
May saw selling across most asset classes and scant appetite for safe haven assets such as gold. However, gold bullion has outperformed many other asset classes YTD and continues to do its job. Gold held its value with low correlation to the S&P 500 and lower volatility than other assets.
Just as we predicted the current wave of inflation in 2020 without going far out on a limb, we are also not going out on a limb with our announcement of persistent stagflation. We will certainly not have to endure a repeat of the stagflation of the1970s; rather, we’ll see stagflation 2.0, with its numerous peculiarities.
Silver, from a pricing standpoint, is historically undervalued relative to gold and offers an attractive investment opportunity. Silver market fundamentals are strong, given that declining supply trends cannot keep up with rising, longer-term demand. Post-COVID, silver demand is rebounding, led by industrial, jewelry and physical coin and bar investment. We are excited about silver's importance to green technology and de-carbonization trends like EVs.
A new uranium bull market is underway. Energy security and decarbonization are taking center stage globally, igniting a fresh and more rational look at the benefits of nuclear power. Ed Coyne, Senior Managing Director at Sprott, joins Tim Rotolo, co-creator of the North Shore Global Uranium Mining Index (URNMX), to explain how the Index is constructed to provide exposure to the key components of the uranium mining industry.
Douglas Yones, NYSE Head of Exchange Traded Products, interviews John Ciampaglia, Chief Executive Officer, Sprott Asset Management, on the recent launch of Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM).
Gold lost 2.09% in April, a month marked by across-the-board outflows in many asset classes as volatility surged. By contrast, gold held in ETFs has increased sharply this year as the safe-haven flight continues. April was tough on many investment sectors, with the S&P 500 Index down 8.80%, the Nasdaq Composite Index declining 13.37% and U.S. Treasury bonds falling 3.10%. The U.S. dollar was one of the few beneficiaries as it neared multi-year highs.
Host Ed Coyne is joined by Tim Rotolo, co-creator of the North Shore Global Uranium Mining Index (URNMX), to discuss the current dynamics of the uranium mining sector and how the Index is constructed to provide exposure to the key components of the uranium mining industry.
The price of gold has been treading water for 10 years while the investment fundamentals have improved dramatically. That is why, in our opinion, significant upside lies ahead for gold and related equities. Putin’s war introduces yet an additional reason to stoke investment demand for the yellow metal. It is not only war in the kinetic sense, but the reserve currency and cyber aspects that have far-reaching implications for gold.
Gold posted its all-time highest quarterly close on March 31, 2022, ending a volatile month that helped gold climb above $2,070 on March 8. By contrast, the U.S. Treasury Index suffered its worst quarter since 1973 and the S&P 500 Index posted its first negative quarter since Q1 2020. While gold may have climbed back to its highs on safe-haven flows, other positive gold supports are definitely in play.
Sprott Market Strategist Paul Wong joins Asset TV's Jenna Dagenhart to discuss Sprott's outlook for gold.
Paul Wong: "The Russian-Ukraine conflict is probably one of the biggest macro drivers in the marketplace. Many commodity users, transportation providers and financial facilities are heading toward self-sanction. There is almost a semi-defacto oil embargo going on right now....Before Russia-Ukraine, the gold market had started shaking off the hawkish Fed rhetoric. Russia-Ukraine has just amplified gold's value as a safe haven asset."
Throughout history, gold has played a prominent role in the advancement of human civilization. Seen as a representation of the sun, of the gods and of true value, gold is a form of real money without counterparty risks. Symbol Au, atomic number 79, gold has been used to adorn the tombs of the great pharaohs and to help power spacecrafts that extend the horizons of humanity’s domain. Learn about gold’s culture, uses and history.
The precious metals complex rebounded strongly in February as other assets faltered. Gold bullion is up 4.36% YTD through February 28, 2022, and silver bullion has increased 4.90%. Gold mining equities rallied and have gained 10.17% YTD. Investors sought safe-haven assets given the heightened concerns over the economic/market risks from rising interest rates and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Nuclear energy’s profile as a highly efficient, reliable and zero-carbon producing energy source has helped to create a new bull market for physical uranium. We discuss the shifting sentiment toward nuclear power and why a growing number of investors are investing in physical uranium and uranium miners.
Stephanie Pomboy and Grant Williams, hosts of the popular podcast Super Terrific Happy Hour, interview a true legend of the precious metals industry, John Hathaway of Sprott Asset Management. The three discuss the Fed, inflation, the financial markets and the outlook for gold bullion and gold stocks.
I believe that we are on the cusp of a generational opportunity today. I would encourage every viewer to dust off their old notebooks and do a little research on precious metals mining companies, especially those that are well managed, with attractive balance sheets.
Gold reached a high of $1,848 in January, but slid following the Fed's exceptionally hawkish statements at the January FOMC meeting. Market risks are rising and we believe that gold, as it did in 2018, is likely to stage a breakout given its safe haven characteristics.
For 2021, the gold price averaged $1,799 compared to $1,770 for 2020, up $29, despite losing 3.64% for the twelve months. Gold traded in a narrow range for most of last year as markets were ping-ponged by inflation and rate hike expectations. Based on historic patterns, gold's lengthy consolidation indicates that prices have the potential to rally sharply and quickly in the coming year. We explain why in our List of Top 10 things to watch for gold investors.
With Fed policy taking a more hawkish turn, the fire hose of liquidity that has fueled market mania is being turned off. At this moment, it appears that confidence in the Fed and attraction to gold are binary. Our view is that a position in gold offers a very favorable asymmetric risk-reward proposition on the possibility that confidence will not survive 2022.
Research and development on small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) is underway globally and generating tremendous buzz. But SMRs are not likely to contribute meaningful amounts of carbon-free power for another decade. By contrast, nuclear power plant life extensions and uprates hold the power to boost carbon-free electricity production in the interim and provide a bridge to a future date when new SMR technologies will be commercially available.
CEO Peter Grosskopf looks back at Sprott’s 2021 highlights and provides his outlook for the year ahead. With the strong support of clients and shareholders, Sprott overcame many obstacles to prosper this past year.
His key message for investors as we head into the new year?
"Stay the course."
Asset TV’s Remy Blaire interviews Ed Coyne, Senior Managing Director, on Sprott's outlook for gold bullion and gold equities heading into 2022. Coyne highlights the positive fundamental backdrop for precious metals and the mining sector, and explains how this overlooked sector can provide protection and portfolio diversification.
Silver has been a form of currency throughout human civilization and is second, only to oil, as the most used resource on earth. Silver is incorporated into every smartphone, desktop and laptop computer, and is essential for the construction of electric vehicles, solar panels, and many other technologies needed for the green economy, as we work to prioritize climate change by reducing carbon emissions.
Whitney George, Chief Investment Officer, Sprott Asset Management, identifies the major paradigm shift we are navigating post-COVID. This new landscape is marked by “globalization in reverse”; a trapped Fed juggling rising inflation, record debt levels and negative real interest rates; a new global focus on decarbonization and ESG; and a move toward more moderate politics. Maria Smirnova, Senior Portfolio Manager, shares Sprott’s 2022 outlook on gold, silver, platinum and palladium.
Gold investors are certainly ready to say goodbye to Groundhog Day $1,800. The good news is that the degree to which macro risks and headwinds are piling up is considerable. When juxtaposed against a near positioning wipeout for gold bullion, we are confident the year-long correction in gold is near its end.
Chemical reactions of fossil-fuel plants release more radiation into the environment than the operation of nuclear energy plants — 10 times more. Most nuclear-industry waste is relatively low in radioactivity, and only a small amount is produced. Estimates put the total waste from a nuclear reactor supplying one person's electricity needs for a year at the size of a standard brick.
Nuclear power generates more than 50% of the carbon-free electricity in the U.S. while meeting 20% of the country's electricity demand. As the country and the world take steps to tackle greenhouse gas emissions, we believe that uranium and nuclear power will be critical to the solution.
Spot gold closed October at $1,783.38, gaining 1.50%. Gold managed to recover from the late September swoon that cleansed positioning and sent the entire precious metals complex into extremely oversold conditions. Gold may have priced in the Fed taper, but the yellow metal has yet to respond to the Fed’s inflation dilemma, which seems anything but transitory.
John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, chats with New York Times’ best selling author and founder of The Bear Traps Report Larry McDonald, laying out a compelling thesis on why uranium is a vital component for the energy needs of the world. Despite supply-side difficulties with uranium mining, Ciampaglia explains how a growing uranium market can give mines the resources they need to increase mining operations and power the planet.
Overconfidence, complacency, recklessness and intoxication appear to characterize today's financial market zeitgeist. An unraveling of the market's speculative euphoria would constitute a near perfect environment for gold bullion and gold mining shares given that the fundamentals have rarely appeared more solid.
Uranium, an element born of the stars, is as complex as it is paradoxical. This heavy metal holds dormant powers both inspiring and terrifying. This new video shares incredible facts about uranium’s inter-planetary origins and looks at the critical role of uranium in the burgeoning green energy economy.
September’s end brought on a new season and a welcomed uptick in gold prices with a settle at $1,757 per ounce. While gold struggled for the month, its positive finish reflected the uncertainty of recent macroeconomic progress. Gold mining stocks were harder hit in September as markets appeared to be factoring in a price-side and cost-side margin squeeze.
Uranium spot prices have been rising in 2021, in what we see as a strong new bull market. Investors are betting on nuclear energy’s profile as a highly efficient, reliable and clean energy source. Aggressive decarbonization goals worldwide are driving major policy shifts that are likely to bolster demand for uranium and nuclear energy.
Gold closed August at $1,814 with a dramatic dip early/mid-month and a quick recovery. Improved July payroll job data gave traders reason to question whether the Fed will maintain its easy monetary stance. Gold sold off but regained support, helped at month end by the Fed's dovish tone at Jackson Hole.
David Lin of Kitco News interviews John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management. They explore the recent surge in uranium prices, supported by a growing understanding that nuclear power is perhaps one of the more reliable and safe sources of baseload power and uranium supply is limited.
"The current global economic landscape indicates improving economic conditions, higher inflation and rates expectations, as well as commodity supply shortages which are likely to support commodity performance. Our analysis suggests that gold is still the most effective commodity investment in a portfolio as it continues to stand apart from the commodities complex."
John Hathaway and Bill Strong join Stephanie Pomboy to reflect back on the Nixon Shock, and draw parallels to today. Pomboy describes it best: "Marking an anniversary can often seem like a hollow perfunctory exercise but I'd say this time, that is definitely not the case. The 50-year anniversary of the Nixon Shock and the policies he outlined in his speech carry unique resonance today."
Gold bullion and gold mining equities gained ground in July. We saw a recovery in gold bullion investments as positions were repurchased and the decline in real yields to all-time lows added to the buying rationale. We believe that gold is well-positioned for a typical late summer/early fall rally, given record-negative real yields, a USD that may be topping out and waning taper/tightening fears.
Sprott's Ed Coyne and John Ciampaglia join Per Jander of WMC Energy to discuss the promising investment case for uranium and the launch of Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (TSX: U.UN). The Trust invests and holds substantially all of its assets in uranium in the form of U3O8 or "yellowcake," which is created in the first stages of its lifecycle from mined ore to spent fuel.
June's gold selling was almost entirely a knee-jerk synthetic affair driven by algorithmic, headline scanning robotic macro funds. We believe the smackdown was a temporary reaction to the perceived change in the Fed's posture towards possible balance sheet reduction. In our opinion, gold and gold mining stocks are compelling buys and the investment rationale for precious metals exposure remains unscathed.
Gold and precious metals took a drubbing in June following the hawkish FOMC meeting that added two rate hikes to the dot plot. Chaos among most asset classes ensued and gold was unduly affected by the strengthening USD and rising real yields. This doesn’t change gold’s long-term fundamental tailwinds, given the unprecedented expansion and reach of monetary and fiscal policies, akin to a grand experiment.
Gold is on the rise again, as the market debates whether inflation will be transitory as economies recover post-COVID. Extreme volatility among cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin has also benefitted gold in Q2. Gold mining stocks are enjoying renewed activity as market participants recognize the free cash flow and profit potential this sector offers.
Gold is making headlines once again after the safe haven asset had its strongest month of gains since July 2020. Sprott CEO Peter Grosskopf joins Asset TV's Jenna Dagenhart to discuss Sprott's outlook for gold and gold equities. Grosskopf: "I think it's a very healthy environment for gold and we believe it is likely to do well going forward."
2021 marks the 50th golden anniversary of the "Nixon Shock," when the world's reserve currency was last partially tethered to gold. Since 1971, gold has mostly managed to trounce fiat paper as a currency and the yellow metal has held its own as an asset class. After 35 years in the gold trade and with the benefit of my Sprott team of experts, I feel qualified to state that today's environment offers a stellar opportunity to gold investors.
Gold's strong performance in May made up for the Q1 correction. Rising U.S. CPI data spooked markets, but helped boost gold and silver prices. As we head into summer (a seasonally strong period for the precious metals complex), we see several macro tailwinds working in our favor.
Ed Coyne joins Liz Claman Liz of FOX Business to look closer at gold. On The Claman Countdown. Liz and Ed talk about what happens to gold prices when the Federal Reserve tapers, or talks of tapering. Coyne explains why he believes physical gold should be a core allocation of most investor's portfolios.
"We are sticking to last year's forecast for the USD price of gold at the end of the decade. For our conservative base scenario, we have issued a price target of USD 4,800; in an inflationary scenario, even USD 8,900 is within the realm of possibility. Based on implied expectations in the gold options market, we see a 45% probability of gold reaching a new USD all-time high as early as December 2021."
With palladium trading near record highs, we revisit the drivers behind palladium’s rise. Overall, we see continued support for palladium prices, even at the higher levels they’ve touched post-COVID. Supply and demand fundamentals have once again come into focus.
John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss Sprott's takeover of Uranium Participation Corporation (UPC) and why he believes the climate for this kind of transaction is most appropriate now.
April provided precious metals markets redemption from a challenging first quarter, with gold finishing the month up 3.60% and silver climbing 6.14%. Silver continues to benefit from expansionary monetary and fiscal policies worldwide and its key industrial role in the new technologies of the "green revolution."
The extraordinary events of 2020 have had a profound effect on virtually all markets around the globe and silver has been no exception. The metal’s supply/demand fundamentals, investment, prices, trade-flows and inventories have all experienced sensational fluctuations over the past 12 months or so, including a handful of historical records being achieved.
Defensive investment strategies are few and far between. Fixed income, debased by artificially low rates, no longer passes muster. Selling volatility to generate income seems like a form of insanity. Gold is the obvious answer. Whether in physical form or precious metals mining shares sporting good dividend yields and trading at depressed valuations, this unwanted investment strategy will prove seaworthy for all conditions.
Gold prices finished March at $1,708, closing off a difficult quarter on the heels of gold's positive, record year. COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in the U.S. encouraged market optimism which was reflected in rising U.S. Treasury yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Despite the cheerier economic outlook, the long-term risks associated with trillions of dollars of economic stimulus, and mounting debt, provide ample support for our bullish metals outlook.
Platinum prices have moved higher as COVID-19 has constrained supply amid rising demand. YOY, spot platinum is up more than 90%. Growing interest among investors for platinum's role as a store of value has also boosted prices. We examine how the global pandemic has impacted platinum supply and demand, and offer our bullish outlook.
For many U.S. investors the returns provided by owning physical gold — and the other precious metals including silver, platinum and palladium — come with a sobering surprise when the assets are sold and it’s time to pay taxes. The reason: The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) categorizes gold and other precious metals as "collectibles" which are taxed at 28%. Most other types of long-term capital gains are taxed at 15%-20%.
February was a tough month for gold. Bond selling spiked into near panic mode and triggered a multi-asset sell-off into month-end. It was an uncomfortable replay of the 2013 Taper Tantrum in condensed form. Gold was not spared, but long-term trends remain in place for our bullish gold view.
The silver market is abuzz in 2021. After climbing more than 47% in 2020, silver continues to play catch up to gold. Growing investment and industrial demand have driven up silver prices and created supply shortages, especially for investors looking to buy the physical metal. Silver ETFs have enjoyed record flows.
Silver climbed more than 47% in 2020, reaffirming its value as a safe haven portfolio asset during the COVID pandemic. But our bullish outlook for silver is based on its unique role as an industrial metal. Silver should be integral to any "green revolution" discussions, given that it is critical to the success of EVs, solar energy and 5G cellular networks. We believe that silver demand will likely explode in the next 10 years, and we don't foresee supply growth keeping pace.
Gold's unique attributes as a scarce, highly liquid, and uncorrelated asset demonstrate that it can act as a diversifier over the long term. Gold's position as an investment and a luxury good has allowed it to deliver average returns of nearly 11% over the past 50 years, comparable to equities and more than bonds and commodities. Overall, extensive analysis suggests that adding between 2% and 10% of gold to a U.S.-dollar-based portfolio can make a tangible improvement to performance and boost risk-adjusted returns on a sustainable, long-term basis.
World Gold Council: "Our analysis suggests that gold stands apart from cryptocurrencies in general and Bitcoin in particular. Gold is an effective, tried and tested investment tool in portfolios. It has been a source of returns rivalling that of the stock market over various time horizons; it has performed well during periods of inflation; it has been a highly liquid, established market; and it has acted as an important portfolio diversifier, exemplifying negative correlation to the market during downturns. The recent performance of cryptocurrencies has been noteworthy, but their purpose as an investment seems quite different from gold."
Gold started the year strongly, reaching almost $1,960 before dropping quickly back to support above the $1,800 range. We have been long-term bullish on silver, which has surged to an 8-year high. The Reddit crowd may accelerate this silver rally to extreme levels, but we can continue to make a strong fundamental case for silver that does not require any short squeeze schemes (real or imagined).
The fate of the stock market and the outlook for gold are more intertwined than most realize. Gold has been performing well, but its outperformance is a well-kept secret. If a general bear market sets in, more investors will embrace gold and gold mining stocks. In the meantime, macroeconomic and valuation factors continue to build in gold's favor.
2020 was a tremendous year for precious metals. Gold bullion gained 25.12%. Silver bullion rose 47.89%. Palladium climbed 25.86% and platinum increased 10.92%. Gold mining equities were up 21.96% and gold junior mining stocks rose 48.53%. We expect the precious metals rally to continue in 2021 and offer our Top 10 list for investors.
As COVID spread in 2020, investors embraced gold and silver as portfolio protection. But the role of these metals extends far beyond this. We explore how precious metals are helping to medically combat the virus and identify several innovative disease-fighting applications that depend on gold, silver, platinum and palladium.
There are several macro-economic reasons why gold may make the perfect gift for the holidays....including the $18 trillion dollars of negative yielding debt in the world today, which is nearly equal to the size of the U.S. economy. Bonds are no longer a portfolio risk mitigator, and if you don’t hold some gold, silver and other precious metals assets, you should.
Investing in gold and silver mining companies is challenging but offers substantial rewards for investors with an edge. After two great performance years, in which gold mining equities outperformed the S&P 500 Index, these stocks are still relatively inexpensive. At Sprott, we rely on a broad team led by very experienced portfolio managers, in the fashion of a collective basket of mining DNA.
Gold prices have climbed sharply in 2020...The moves cap a year rocked by a pandemic that led to economic restrictions and fiscal stimulus measures, feeding the precious metal’s appeal as a haven investment. Sprott CEO Peter Grosskopf sees the recent pullback in gold as “a healthy correction and a buying opportunity” for investors.
Precious metals took a post-election pause in November. Gold bullion lost 5.42% but is up 17.11% YTD and 21.38% YOY through November 31, 2020. Silver bullion lost 4.28% in November but has risen 26.84% YTD and 32.99% YOY. The macroeconomic fundamentals remain intact to support a continuation of this year’s precious metals rally. We see this correction as an attractive yearend, seasonal buying opportunity.
Tom Bodrovics, a host of Palisades Gold Radio, welcomes returning guest John Hathaway of Sprott. Hathaway says, “the setup for gold is so incredible. It's the best I've seen it in my 20 plus years of gold investing.” Hathaway explains why traditional portfolio weightings no longer work, given that bonds today are "return-free risk". Gold can provide an alternative to bonds, and Hathaway explains how a relatively small move in the gold bullion price can have an outsized impact on gold miners' profit margins and the value of their stocks.
With building anxiety over the U.S. presidential election, investors stepped away from markets in October, including gold bullion and mining equities. The uncertainties of the election and COVID-19's surging second wave have created a "risk mitigation" type market. The gold bull market remains intact and both gold bullion and mining equities are well-positioned under most plausible election scenarios.
With gratitude for a career on Wall Street that has spanned more than 40 years, I have experienced plenty of history. Looking back for an analog to this past year, in many ways, 1968 was a year on par with 2020. As a society, we survived and were able to move forward and grow from the experience, and we benefitted from positive investment lessons learned in the aftermath of 1968. This too shall pass.
The current pullback in the precious metals sector is a buying opportunity. It is possible that gold and gold mining shares could continue to chop sideways-to-lower until the U.S. presidential election results are known and even into yearend as the implications are sorted out. We believe that now is the time to start layering in gold exposure, not when the rest of the world tries to do so.
Markets experienced the first post-COVID meaningful correction in September as investment fund exposures were reduced, resulting in a contraction in market depth and liquidity. Despite September's profit taking, gold bullion posted its eighth straight quarterly gain. We see this as a buying opportunity for precious metals investors.
After touching a record high of $2,075 on August 7, gold bullion closed August at $1,968. Despite this pullback, we see gold well supported above the prior cycle high of $1,900 as it settles into a sustainable $2,000-$2,200 trading level. Both silver bullion and gold mining equities reached multi-year highs in August.
Gold has powered over $2,000, and we take stock of what has been accomplished by the monetary metal and what may lie next. It has now been established as a baseline that a diversified asset portfolio must include an allocation to gold. No other liquid asset accomplishes what gold does in the way of portfolio insurance and purchasing power protection.
The economic fallout from COVID-19 has created a predictable headwind for jewelry purchases around the globe. However, given that jewelry is deeply rooted in cultural norms and traditions, we anticipate a healthy rebound in jewelry purchases over time, driven by the role that it plays in societies and a strong desire to resume “normal life” among most buyers.
The precious metals complex set off fireworks in July as gold bullion reached all-time highs. Silver bullion and gold mining equities broke through significant long-term resistance levels to further improve their bullish standing. Year to date, precious metals continue to outperform as gold has attained “escape velocity”, i.e., it has gravitationally moved away from other asset classes.*
Dr Graham Birch joined the Sprott Board of Directors and has in-depth experience in asset management, especially in precious metals, having been responsible for gold and mining investments at BlackRock in London. Graham has just written a book, "The Metal in Britain’s Coins – Where did it come from and how did it get here?", about the historical origins of the bullion in Britain’s coins, with lessons in it for those who wish to understand the importance of gold and silver as money in a world of paper currencies.
We believe that the macro forces for gold and gold mining stocks have coalesced into what may be one of the 'fattest investment pitches' of our time. A fat pitch is a momentary event, akin to catching a major trend change in the financial markets. Such opportunities do not come around often. They deserve serious consideration and expeditious response.
Gold bullion continued to deliver strong performance and was up 17.38% YTD through June 30, 2020, and 26.36% YOY. At the same time, gold mining equities have gained 25.88% YTD, and 44.00% YOY as of June 30. This compares to -3.08% YTD and 7.51% YOY returns for the S&P 500 TR Index. Silver posted strong gains in June and is on the move again; silver is up 1.99% YTD and 18.88% YOY as of June 30.
Silver has been on the move since April, although it is still playing catch up to gold in this year’s precious metals rally. We identify four long-term consumer-driven trends that are positively driving demand for silver, including solar energy, battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), 5G cellular connectivity and antimicrobial applications.
After a tumultuous past few months, every asset class appears to be normalizing, including gold bullion. Gold posted steady gains in May with a 2.6% increase. Gold is up 14.04% YTD through May 31, 2020, and 32.54% YOY. At the same time, gold mining equities (SGDM) have gained 18.26% YTD, and 61.70% YOY as of May 31. This compares to -4.97% YTD and 12.84% YOY returns for the S&P 500 TR Index. Silver also posted strong gains in May and is on the move again.
Gold miners have climbed steadily, following the positive path we predicted back in November 2019. As of April 30, 2020, gold mining stocks were up 11.01% YTD and 57.87% YOY, compared to -12.36% YTD and -7.91% YOY for the S&P 500 Index. In our view, gold mining equities still have a great deal of upside to offer, given that historically gold stocks tend to outperform the metal during gold bull markets (2-3x).
Gold equities broke out of a multi-year resistance level on massive buying flows in April. Gold miners may be experiencing disruptions due to COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns, but they stand to benefit from a rising gold price. Gold bullion is up +11% YTD and +31% year-over-year (through April 30, 2020).
The silver market is in the throes of several changing trends as the COVID-19 pandemic upends the global economy. When the dust settles, we see a bullish case for silver prices, as investment demand ticks upward while supply constraints linger.
March 2020 will go down in history as one of the most tumultuous ever for capital markets. For the first time in over 100 years, a global pandemic has struck with devastating results. Gold continues to deliver strong relative performance and was up 3.95% on a year-to-date basis through March 31, 2020, compared to -19.60% for the S&P 500 TR Index. The need for a safe haven asset like gold, that represents a store of value during crises has never been greater.
Jason Mayer, Senior Portfolio Manager, recaps the past two weeks: "We were not surprised by the recent selloff in gold bullion and precious metal equities. During violent broader market corrections, liquidity is priority number one....the unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus in response to COVID-19 should debase fiat currencies while providing a tremendous tailwind for gold bullion and gold equities."
Read the latest intel on Palladium from the World Platinum Investment Council. The spectacular increase in the price of palladium since 2016, in particular during 2019, attracted widespread interest from investors, industrial users of palladium and market commentators. It also highlighted the importance of understanding the palladium market when considering an investment in palladium or platinum.
Whitney George reflects on markets and the COVID-19 crisis: "We are in a paradigm shift right now, one that may have taken us all a bit by surprise. I expect that central banks will shortly provide the liquidity required to settle the markets, an accomplishment that will be very favorable to gold."
We believe that gold provided what it should during times of crisis, a form of insurance to cash in when liquidity is required. We are comforted that throughout this "policy payout," gold has mimicked its performance in the GFC, during which it was first sold down by holders requiring funds for other purposes and then skyrocketed once liquidity was rebalanced and QE began in earnest. We believe that long-term investors, not subject to margin pressures, will be similarly rewarded by owning gold at this time.
We think gold has been sensing the endgame for Keynesian policy prescriptions, mainstream economic thinking and hyper-leveraged investment practices....At the moment, mining company valuations appear extraordinarily cheap. It is one of the few industries that will report solid year-over-year earnings gains for the remainder of this year and perhaps into the next. Buying low is never easy but now is the time to do it.
Hathaway: "Going forward, unless the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet, it risks a meltdown in equity and bond prices that could exceed the damage of the 2008 global financial crisis....With continued advances in gold prices in 2020, the return potential for gold mining shares — the still unloved orphans and pariahs of the investment universe — should prove to be very compelling."
2019 marked the best performance for the precious metals complex in nearly a decade. Gold bullion closed the year at $1,517 (gaining 18.31% for the 12 months). Silver bullion ended the year at $17.85 (up 15.23% in 2019). Platinum climbed 21.56% in 2019, and palladium soared 54.24%. Gold mining equities showed notable strength, finishing 2019 up 46.97% as measured by Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM).
Gold mining stocks have soared almost 30% so far in 2019, as of November 15. Over the last 12 months, the sector is up 40%. Some investors may assume that gold stocks have run their course. On the contrary, we think that the gold mining equities still have a great deal of upside to offer.
Gold bullion has seen a double-digit YTD advance in 2019, and gold mining equities have also posted notable returns. Tocqueville Asset Management's John Hathaway and Ryan McIntyre join Ed Coyne, Senior Managing Director at Sprott Asset Management, to discuss their outlooks and suggest the optimal gold portfolio allocation for most investors.
Given gold’s sharp rise since May, September’s correction was not unexpected. We believe it is reflective of a new consolidation phase, and likely to be short term in nature. All factors that we consider to be significantly correlating to gold bullion indicate that we are still in the early stages of a major long-term advance.
In our view, gold’s role as a non-correlating store of value has rarely offered more portfolio utility than it does today....The most troubling legacy of contemporary central banking has been the emergence of negative nominal interest rates. The fact that they actually exist, only highlights the dire nature of global financial imbalances.
The debate over gold’s place in a modern investment portfolio has been well covered. Call it the “Pet Rock” versus the “End of Fiat Currency” grudge match. But the facts are not subject to such intense interpretation....An enormous transformation of the gold market can occur once digital gold attracts the volumes needed to make it a serious business.
July was positive for both gold and silver, which were propelled by the Fed’s interest rate cut on July 31, its first cut in 11 years. Any hope that this is a "one and done" rate hike has quickly been dashed with the latest U.S.-China trade war salvo. The long-term picture remains firmly intact. Gold and silver continue to rise as the market adjusts to a new central bank easing cycle.
Gold has moved above the critical $1,400 mark for the first time in nearly six years. We believe that gold may be decisively breaking out of a six-year cycle and that this may be the beginning of a powerful multi-year rally. It's an opportune moment for CEO Peter Grosskopf to share his guidance on gold investing.
A two month bitcoin rally has reignited the gold-versus-bitcoin debate. We view such either-or comparisons of gold and bitcoin as somewhat specious, because we see little commonality between the two assets. Gold continues to function as a reliable store of value and productive portfolio-diversifying asset. In contrast, bitcoin continues to augment its reputation as a highly erratic speculation. Bitcoin’s investment merits, at least to date, have proven distinctly different from gold’s portfolio utility.
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